Arabs without Arabic: A Spatio-Temporal Model of Language Attrition and its Implications for National Security

Abstract

This paper challenges the classification of the Arabic language as 'secure' by mainstream language vitality indices. We argue that such assessments, focused on static metrics like speaker numbers, overlook the dynamic and corrosive processes of language attrition driven by globalisation and linguistic hegemony. We introduce a novel Socio-Political-Historical (SPH) framework that integrates Pierre Bourdieu's theory of linguistic capital and Antonio Gramsci's concept of hegemony to analyse the decline of Arabic's socio-economic prestige. Based on this framework, we develop a predictive mathematical model that quantifies the rate of Arabic language attrition across 22 Arab states over a 100-year period (2024-2124). The model forecasts an accelerating decline, particularly in the peripheries of the Arab world, pushing the average status of the language below a critical viability threshold. We argue that this linguistic erosion constitutes a first-order threat to Arab national security, potentially leading to societal fragmentation and conflict, mirroring the Balkanisation of the former Yugoslavia. The paper concludes by proposing a comprehensive policy framework for language revitalisation, structured around governmental regulation, educational reform, and the strategic projection of linguistic soft power, arguing that such measures are a strategic imperative for the future of the Arab world.