Comparative Analysis of Low-Carbon Energy Transition in Nigeria and South Africa

Abstract

This study conducts a qualitative comparative analysis of Nigeria and South Africa to examine how both countries are navigating low-carbon energy transitions in alignment with the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs 7, 8, and 13). Relying on systematic documentary analysis of national policy frameworks, legislative instruments, institutional reports, and international databases, the study evaluates the transition pathways across three core dimensions: policy alignment, governance and institutional capacity, and socioeconomic and just transition outcomes. The findings reveal that while both countries demonstrate formal commitment to global climate objectives, South Africa exhibits stronger policy coherence and institutional coordination through instruments such as the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP 2019) and the Just Energy Transition Investment Plan (JET-IP 2022). Nigeria's transition trajectory, though ambitious, remains limited by fragmented governance structures, fiscal dependence on fossil fuels, and modest progress in renewable energy deployment. Socioeconomic implications also diverge: South Africa's transition incorporates structured just transition mechanisms, whereas Nigeria's approach remains largely technocratic with limited social safeguards. The study concludes that institutional capacity, policy integration, and social inclusivity are the decisive determinants of transition success. It offers targeted country-specific and continental policy recommendations to enhance governance effectiveness, accelerate renewable adoption, and ensure equitable outcomes across Africa's broader decarbonisation agenda.