Ecotourism Traffic Correlates and Artefacts Degradation of Sango Shrine in Old Oyo National Park, Oyo State Nigeria

Abstract

This study presents an investigation into the impact of ecotourism on the material degradation of cultural artefacts at the Sango Shrine, Old Oyo National Park, Nigeria. The shrine is a critical heritage-ecotourism nexus, yet the physical impact of increasing visitor traffic on its fragile artefacts remains unquantified, hindering targeted conservation. The primary objective was to establish a statistically predictive model between visitor numbers and artefact degradation. The methodology involved longitudinal monitoring over 12 months. Visitor data (X variable) was collected via park records and direct counts, yielding a monthly range of 150 to 400 visitors. A Degradation Index (DI) was formulated for 20 selected artefacts (5 wooden, 5 terracotta, 5 stone, 5 metal). Each artefact was scored monthly on a continuous scale from 0 (pristine) to 5 (severe degradation) based on six weighted parameters: surface wear (25%), cracking (20%), flaking (20%), discolouration (15%), biological growth (10%), and structural instability (10%). The monthly ΔDI (change in the mean DI for all artefacts) served as the dependent variable (Y). The core analysis was a Simple Linear Regression, Y = β₀ + β₁X + ε, to model the relationship. The results were statistically conclusive. The regression yielded a highly significant model (F(1, 10) = 28.4, p < 0.001) with a strong positive correlation (r = 0.85, R² = 0.722). The regression equation was quantified as ΔDI = 0.0035*(Visitor Count) - 0.42. The slope coefficient (β₁ = 0.0035) was significant (p < 0.001), indicating that for every additional 100 visitors per month, the composite Degradation Index increases by 0.35 units. Disaggregated analysis showed wooden and terracotta artefacts had a steeper degradation rate (β₁ ~ 0.005) compared to stone (β₁ ~ 0.002). This study provides a rigorous, numerical basis for conservation policy, demonstrating that ecotourism traffic is a primary driver of material degradation. The findings necessitate the immediate implementation of a visitor carrying capacity, informed directly by the established regression model to ensure sustainable management of this invaluable cultural site.