Macroeconomic Variables as Determinants of Agricultural Exports in Nigeria

Abstract

Agricultural exports in Nigeria have been adversely affected by fluctuations in macroeconomic indicators. Insufficient private agricultural investment and limited public expenditure directed toward the sector have resulted in inadequate productivity and suboptimal export performance. This study investigates the macroeconomic determinants of agricultural exports in Nigeria. A multiple regression model is specified, with agricultural exports (as a percentage of total merchandise exports) as the dependent variable. The independent variables are national output (economic growth rate), inflation rate, interest rate, exchange rate, and tariff rate. The analysis employs descriptive statistics, correlation, stationarity, and cointegration tests. After confirming the absence of multicollinearity, heterogeneity, autocorrelation, and nonstationarity in the time series data, the variables are deemed suitable for regression analysis. The model is estimated using ordinary least squares, and the results are interpreted at the 5% significance level. The findings indicate that all macroeconomic indicators, except the tariff rate, significantly influence agricultural exports. It is recommended that Nigerian policymakers reassess the effects of macroeconomic policies on the country's external balance, with particular attention to agricultural exports.