Arabic Language Attrition and State Stability: Empirical Validation of the SPH-LENS Framework in the Arab World

Abstract

Arabic’s gradual attrition has been theorised as a potential national security threat, but this claim has not previously been tested empirically. Building on our earlier conceptual work – the Socio-Political-Historical (SPH) framework and the SPH-LENS early warning system – the paper examines whether erosion in Arabic language vitality is associated with rising state fragility across the 22 Arab League states. Using a panel dataset covering roughly 2000–2025, the paper constructs a composite Arabic Attrition Index (AAI), operationalising SPH LENS indicators, and compare it to national stability measures such as the Fragile States Index (FSI). Fixed effects panel regressions, panel Granger causality tests, and robustness checks with economic, demographic, and institutional controls are employed to isolate the language factor. The paper finds that declines in Arabic’s societal role – particularly in education, science, and media – significantly predict subsequent increases in state fragility, even after accounting for confounders. These results provide the first quantitative evidence that language attrition and instability are linked, reframing Arabic language policy as a strategic rather than purely cultural concern. The paper concludes with policy recommendations for Arab governments and the Arab League and outlines avenues for further research on language vitality as an early warning indicator of national cohesion and security.