Diversifying Zambia's Energy Mix: A Qualitativee Analysis of Zesco's Transition from Hydrodependence

Abstract

Zambia’s electricity sector is predominantly reliant on hydropower, generating 85% of its energy from hydroelectric sources. However, climate change-induced droughts and water shortages at major reservoirs, such as Kariba Dam, exposed the country to severe energy instability. Consequently, energy diversification has become an urgent policy objective for ZESCO and the Zambian government. This study examined ZESCO’s transition from hydro-dependence to a diversified energy mix by assessing consumer perceptions, stakeholder perspectives, and policy challenges affecting renewable energy adoption. A qualitative case study approach was employed, combining semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders and document analysis of energy policies, regulatory frameworks, and investment reports. The study sample included ZESCO officials, government policymakers, energy experts, and electricity consumers, providing a multi-dimensional understanding of Zambia’s energy diversification landscape. Data were analyzed through thematic analysis, which identified core themes related to energy security, financial constraints, policy barriers, and public willingness to support diversification efforts. Results revealed that 65% of consumers rated electricity supply as unreliable, with daily outages lasting between 8 and 16 hours for most respondents. Public awareness of ZESCO’s diversification initiatives was low, with 50% only somewhat informed about renewable projects. Solar and wind energy emerged as preferred alternatives, with 40% supporting solar expansion. Financial constraints (25%) and regulatory barriers (25%) were the primary obstacles. Despite these barriers, 50% of consumers expressed willingness to pay higher tariffs for improved reliability. The study recommended policy enhancements, strategic investments in solar and wind, and improved consumer engagement to support Zambia’s transition toward a resilient and diversified energy future.